Posts Tagged ‘shares’

Do You Have A Back Up Plan?

Friday, November 20th, 2009

I know a woman in her sixties. She worked for a company for a little more than a decade as an administration and office assistant for a staff of one hundred sales people, who loved her dearly. She always made sure all the faxes got to their desks; the stationery stock was full and each staff member had what he needed.

Beyond her job description, she was like a mother to all of them: making sure the toilets got cleaned, old food was removed from the fridge and decorating the entire floor which the department occupied. She worked hard and never complained. She was always smiling, friendly and polite.

She felt good about being a ‘mother’ to all the people who entered and left that department. She was comfortable with her position. No-one else could do the things she did. And she did them better than anyone else in the building.

One day, she went to work as usual. After doing her morning chores, she was invited to the office, where she was told her services were no longer needed. The company was undergoing certain cost-cutting measures in every department and unfortunately, her role would have to be sacrificed. She was then asked to leave the building as soon as possible. She was assured, however, that before having made the decision, every attempt had been made to find a position for her somewhere within the company.

She has financial obligations to fulfil and she still hasn’t saved enough for her retirement. She still has credit to pay off and she was saving for a trip overseas, something she never got around to doing in her younger years. She wanted to save up to establish a book-selling business. Suddenly, she would have to re-evaluate her plans. Losing a job and nearing retirement age, she will have to relinquish some of the things she had dreamt for herself.

I am sure you have heard hundreds of similar stories like these. Just five months before writing this article, I had already read about companies cutting costs by laying off jobs. Their main reason is to remain competitive, so they would not have to raise the prices they charge to their customers. Companies are outsourcing jobs overseas because the labour costs in other countries are relatively cheap compared to the local currency and sometimes because of significant skills or technological advantages. Other businesses lessen staff when sales drop and they can no longer sustain to pay the same number of people they have on their payroll. No organisation – not even a big, established business – is immune from the need to become leaner in an ever-increasingly competitive market environment.

In the past, most people believed the companies or the governments – whom they work for – could guarantee them a job for life. Nowadays, I think more and more people are becoming increasingly aware that expecting to have a job-for-life is unrealistic. It is a dire predicament to be working everyday, taking care of someone else’s business and realising that at the end of one’s career, years of service do not guarantee one’s well-being. Because of this, I believe that people are now looking to improve their chances of having enough funds to meet their needs and wants after retirement.

I think there is a dawning awareness that the ultimate responsibility for one’s own well-being lies within each individual. People are beginning to understand that their boss or the company they work for does not have an obligation nor the ability to ensure that they are taken care of when they finish working for them.

According to an article written by John Roskam*, based on a forthcoming Institute of Public Affairs (IPA) Backgrounder on self-employment and the self-reliant society, the trend to self-employment will speed up in coming decades. Five reasons explain this change:

1. Our societies will continue to develop knowledge-intensive and service industries.
2. Jobs of the future need more education; however, better educated workers might opt to work for themselves instead.
3. Older workers are more comfortable with being self-employed than the younger workers, which might indicate individuals would prefer to work for themselves as they grow older.
4. Individuals want more control and flexibility over their working arrangements and self-employment allows for this.
5. Individuals are more willing to assume responsibility for the decisions that affect their lives and their families.

In addition to this trend, more and more people are now seeking to gain greater control over their financial assets.

What we can all learn from this article is the idea that we do not have to rely on our employers to be there for us when we desperately need them to pay us our periodic paycheques at the end of our working days. There are alternatives and, while we still can, I believe we owe it to ourselves and our families to have a back-up plan and look at every single opportunity available. The question for you is this: Do you have a back-up plan?

Day Trading With The Camarilla Equation

Thursday, November 5th, 2009

Origins of the Camarilla Equation

Discovered while day trading in 1989 by Nick Stott, a successful bond trader in the financial markets, the ‘Camarilla’ equation uses a truism of nature to define market action – namely that most time series have a tendency to revert to the mean.

The equation produces 8 levels that are meant to predict these reversal points allowing the trader to profit from them. The equation uses nothing more than the previous trading day’s open, close, high and low levels and some interesting mathematics to produce these supports and resistances.

Trading the Signals

Now these levels are numbered L1-4 for the supports and H1-4 for the resistances but it is really the L3, L4, H3 and H4 ones that are most important.

When the price level reaches the H3 level the theory behind the Camarilla Equation says that there is a strong resistance at this point and that a SHORT trade should be made with a stop loss at the H4 level.

Conversely, when the price drops to the L3 level there is a strong support and a LONG trade is the recommendation with a stop loss at the L4 level.

Breakout Possibilities

While the H4 and L4 levels should normally be reserved for setting stop losses on the above trades, occasionally there will come a point when these points are broken through. If this breakout is maintained for a significant amount of time and the price is still on the move then a LONG or SHORT trade should be entered respectively.

These trades are not so common but could provide massive profits (or so the Camarilla Equation suggests)

Choosing entry point with Camarilla Equation

There are two entry points that you may like to consider when using the Camarilla Equation. Firstly you could trade as soon as the market reaches either the L3 or H3 level and go AGAINST the current trend but there is more of a danger that the trend will continue and you will lose out if this is your preferred method.

The alternative is to wait after the market has broken the L3 or H3 level until the reverse actually occurs and enter the trade just as the market passes the respective level once again. This allows you to trade WITH the trend which should prove a safer option.

So does it Work?

If you are interested in whether or not the Camarilla Equation provides a viable trading method then you may wish to follow my experiment which is testing the given levels for the FTSE 100, Dow Jones and DAX 30 stock markets.

4 Deadly Reasons Why Beginners Fail In The Share Market

Monday, September 28th, 2009

1. Don’t know how to choose the right share to buy
2. Don’t know when to bail out of a losing share
3. Don’t know when to take profit on a winning share
4. Don’t Know how to construct a proper portfolio

1. Don’t know how to choose the right share to buy…

How does beginners choose what shares to buy amongst thousands of shares? You might choose to listen to your share broker, or listen to your “experienced” relative, or listen to free “share pick” on the internet…etc… and you will end up losing money.

Because individual share behavior is very complex, only the most professional full time traders have the right technology to make proper share pick decisions. Such experience and technology is simply not available especially to the beginner trader.

2. Don’t know when to bail out of a losing share…

The deadliest killer of beginner traders is not knowing when to get out of a losing share. Too many traders hold on to their shares until it is worth nothing. Most beginners will hold on hoping that the share will stage a rebound because you simply do not have the technology to tell if a share will ever rebound! The only way for a beginner to prevent losing everything is for an expert to tell them when to get out of a trade.

3. Don’t know when to take profit on a winning share…

How many times have you heard stories around you of people who hold on to shares which made them a lot of money until one day, the share turned around on them into a severe loss?

Too many people keep thinking that their winning shares will keep on winning forever and never knew when to take profit… until the shares crashed on them! The problem is again that telling when a share is losing upward momentum is extremely difficult.

4. Don’t know how to construct a proper portfolio…

Do you know that many shares actually move up and down together no matter what? Do you know that there are shares that totally move opposite to each other? Do you know that many shares actually move exactly opposite to the way the market is moving? Do you know that there are shares that do not ever move? Do you know that there are shares that are on the verge of getting delisted?

If you do not know the above, how would you ever be able to intelligently put different shares together so that you can make money? What if you put a share together with a share that moves exactly opposite to it? Would you ever make money?

That is why a lot of people are turning to trading a much more reliable and much more stable instrument; Market Index or Market Index ETF.

Read about how trading an index based strategy can help you overcome all these problems at http://www.mastersoequity.com/MOE_ridetheflow.htm